Cardinals Spring Training Insights: Liberatore, Baez, and Gorman Shine

As Spring Training progresses, the Cardinals are making a strong impression with a winning record, showcasing promising prospects, and, importantly, steering clear of serious injuries. This year marks the first time all spring games have been tracked by Statcast, offering fans and analysts a wealth of data to dissect as the regular season approaches. Today, we dive into some early Statcast indicators to identify Cardinals players who may be exhibiting meaningful changes, keeping in mind the small-sample-size caveats that accompany spring training statistics.

Contrary to offseason discussions, manager Oli Marmol has been vocal about viewing the pitching staff as the Cardinals’ strength. Early Statcast numbers lend credence to that optimism. Notably, Dustin May and Richard Fitts have arrived at camp with fastballs averaging over 97 MPH, clocking in at 97.7 and 97.4 MPH, respectively. Matthew Liberatore has maintained a solid velocity around 94 MPH on both his fastball and sinker, showcasing impressive overall performance. Kyle Leahy, transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation, has seen a slight dip of 1.5 MPH in his velocity as he adjusts. Meanwhile, Andre Pallante has ramped up from the low 90s to 94 MPH in his latest outing, indicating no cause for concern. However, Michael McGreevy’s fastball has declined by nearly 2 MPH over his last two starts, raising flags as he lacks the fastball shape to manage such a drop effectively. On a brighter note, prospect Quinn Mathews has kept his velocity steady, consistently sitting in the 94-95 MPH range.

In terms of swing-and-miss ability, Liberatore has quietly emerged as a standout performer this spring, boasting an impressive 14/1 K/BB ratio over 10 innings. Recently, Eno Sarris highlighted the Stuff+ pitching leaders among starters this spring, underscoring Liberatore’s potential. If the improvements displayed by both Liberatore and Fitts sustain, it could signal a significant development for the Cardinals’ pitching staff, which has not seen a starting pitcher surpass a Stuff+ rating of 107 since the statistic’s introduction in 2020. Liberatore’s success is reflected in his ability to generate the second-lowest contact rate in baseball this spring, with batters making contact on just 60% of their swings against him. Another lefty, Brycen Mautz, ranks fourth in the league with a 61% contact rate, and although he has had success with his fastball, his slider has proven nearly unhittable, inducing swings and misses almost half the time. Mathews also showcases impressive swing-and-miss potential, with a contact rate around 66%. For context, the league-wide contact rate is 77%, and starting pitchers typically aim for around 70% to be in the elite category. As the season unfolds, Leahy’s contact rate will be crucial to monitor, especially since he has historically struggled to miss bats despite having strong stuff.

On the offensive side, outfield prospect Joshua Baez and infielder Nolan Gorman have both shown promise this spring, albeit through different means. Baez made a splash in his limited Spring Training appearances, hitting three home runs and posting a slash line of .333/.417/.762 in 24 plate appearances. He demonstrated his ability to drive the ball, hitting four of his 15 batted balls at over 100 MPH, a crucial metric for translating power to in-game performance. Although his strikeout rate was an acceptable 25%, his contact rate of 59% raises concerns, especially when compared to the lowest contact rate among qualified major leaguers last season, which was 67.6% by Aaron Judge. While 24 plate appearances is insufficient for stabilization, Baez’s performance has further fueled the debate regarding his future potential in the majors. If he can maintain a contact rate in the mid-70s as he moves up to Memphis, he could become a significant asset.

Nolan Gorman, on the other hand, has battled a career strikeout rate of 34%, but this spring, he has impressively fanned in only 12.9% of his plate appearances. Whether this is merely a small-sample-size anomaly or a genuine adjustment remains to be seen. Examining Gorman’s rolling average K% over his career reveals that he hasn’t experienced a stretch like this in over two years. While it’s difficult to draw definitive conclusions at this stage, Gorman’s improved contact ability could unlock more power for him, potentially providing the Cardinals with the offensive spark the lineup has been missing.

Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.