Mike Burrows’ Early Struggles: Hope for a Turnaround Remains

Amidst the challenges of reshaping their starting rotation, the Astros made a bold move last December, trading two prospects from a depleted farm system to acquire Mike Burrows from the Pittsburgh Pirates. The expectation was high for Burrows, a talented 11th round pick who finally made his Major League debut in 2024, showcasing his potential with a 3.94 ERA, a 24.1 percent strikeout rate, and a 7.7 percent walk rate—figures that exceeded league averages. With five years of club control, he embodied the kind of high-ceiling acquisition that teams aiming for success often pursue.

Yet, the early returns on this trade have been disappointing. In his first five starts with the Astros, Burrows has struggled to find his footing, posting a 1-3 record with a 6.75 ERA. While his walk rate has seen a slight decline, his strikeout rate has dropped to 20.5 percent. Burrows has completed the sixth inning just once and has allowed three or more runs in all but one of his outings, raising concerns about his performance.

Burrows arrived in Houston touted for having one of the best changeups in baseball. This pitch has shown promise, as opponents are hitting just .188 against it with a 37.1% whiff rate. However, the real issue has been his fastball, which has been hit hard. Left-handed hitters have capitalized, going 8 for 16 with three home runs against his four-seam fastball, while righties are 8 for 20 against his two-seam variant. The struggles with his two-seam fastball are understandable given its limited use with the Pirates, but the four-seam needs improvement, especially after lefties hit .270 with two homers against it in 2025.

Despite these setbacks, there are glimmers of hope for Burrows. In a recent game against the Cardinals, he dazzled for four innings, retiring all 14 batters he faced, including seven by strikeout, before a single broke his perfect streak. Following that, the next four batters reached base, and Burrows was unable to finish the fifth inning, but his initial performance was a testament to his capabilities. Astros manager Joe Espada acknowledged, “I don’t want to take away from how well he pitched those first four innings. I think the fifth doesn’t speak for how well he threw the ball. He had his stuff working.”

Two key factors suggest the Astros can remain optimistic about Burrows’ potential. First, transitioning to a new team can be a challenging adjustment, requiring pitchers to modify their approach. The Astros have indeed altered Burrows’ pitch usage, making his two-seam fastball his primary offering against right-handed hitters, a stark contrast to its usage of less than 10 percent last season. Additionally, they have adjusted his arm slot from 48 degrees to 39.

Secondly, Burrows has faced some misfortune this season. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is nearly two runs lower than his ERA, and his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is almost 90 points higher than league average, despite a lack of hard contact against him. His opponents have a 33.8 percent chase rate, which exceeds his rate from the previous season by more than six percentage points. According to Baseball Savant, no pitcher has been more adversely affected by defensive support, with the Astros at -4 runs prevented and -5 outs above average when Burrows is on the mound.

While Burrows has yet to meet the high expectations set by the Astros at the time of his acquisition, it’s important to remember that the trade wasn’t made with just five starts in mind. The organization believed Burrows could be a cornerstone of their rotation for the next five seasons, and the signs of potential are still present, offering hope for a turnaround.

Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.