Cincinnati Reds lefty Andrew Abbott is set to take the mound tonight in Chicago, looking to reignite his season as he faces the Cubs at Wrigley Field. While Abbott’s numbers in 2026 initially appear comparable to his All-Star campaign in 2025, a deeper dive reveals some concerning trends that could impact his performance.
His fastball velocity remains nearly identical to last year, averaging just 0.4 mph slower, and his pitch usage patterns have not strayed significantly from his prior season. However, a notable shift in his secondary pitches has raised eyebrows among analysts and fans alike. Abbott’s curveball, which averaged 81.0 mph last season, has dropped to 79.3 mph this year, while his changeup has seen a slight uptick in speed, moving from 84.8 mph to 85.7 mph.
These changes in velocity have had a tangible impact on his pitch values, particularly for his curveball and changeup, according to FanGraphs. Moreover, Abbott’s fastball, once regarded as one of the best among pitchers with over 100 innings, has lost most of its value, raising questions about his effectiveness on the mound.
Another intriguing aspect of Abbott’s performance is his arm angle. Statcast data indicates that he has increased his arm angle from 48 degrees in 2025 to 52 degrees in 2026. Whether this adjustment is intentional remains unclear, but it could be contributing to his difficulties in locating pitches accurately.
Abbott’s recent outing on April 30 against the Colorado Rockies marked his best performance since Opening Day, but expectations are tempered as he prepares to face a tougher opponent in the Cubs. The Reds, currently on a four-game losing streak, are eager to turn their fortunes around, especially following a heart-wrenching walk-off loss the night before.
With first pitch scheduled for 7:40 PM ET, Abbott will be looking to showcase his potential and silence critics by leading the Reds to a much-needed victory. Fans are hopeful for a stronger showing and fewer weather interruptions than experienced in last night’s game.
Here’s how the Reds will line up for the start:
Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.
CHW
DET
CIN
NYY
TOR
CHC
SD
TEX
SF
MIA
WSH
TB
MIL
ATL
NYM
PHI
CLE
HOU
PIT
COL
LAA
OAK
BAL
LAD
MIN
ARI
BOS
SEA
STL
KC