Padres Face Concerns as Lucas Giolito Struggles Early in 2026 Season

The San Diego Padres are grappling with significant concerns regarding their starting rotation as the 2026 season unfolds. Following a challenging Spring Training, the team saw Joe Musgrove land on the injured list due to issues with his surgically repaired elbow. The struggles continued when Nick Pivetta was sidelined after four starts with a flexor tendon strain in his right arm, and Germán Márquez, who made six starts, was also placed on the injured list due to right forearm nerve discomfort. His performance had been inconsistent prior to this setback.

In a bid to bolster their rotation, the Padres called up righty Matt Waldron, who had been impressive in Triple-A. Unfortunately, his transition to the majors was rocky, leading to his own stint on the injured list. Meanwhile, Walker Buehler, a reclamation project, started the season with a focus on command and control, especially after undergoing two elbow surgeries that diminished his velocity.

On a brighter note, Michael King and Randy Vásquez have remained healthy and made all their scheduled starts, though their consistency has been a concern. Griffin Canning, completing his rehab assignment, joined the rotation but has struggled with his own consistency issues.

Given the precarious state of the starting pitchers, it wasn’t surprising when A.J. Preller, the president of baseball operations, signed free agent starter Lucas Giolito to a one-year, $2.8 million contract on April 22. Giolito had been available after not signing during the offseason or Spring Training. He ended the 2025 season on the injured list with the Boston Red Sox and missed the playoffs. Despite a solid 2025 season with a 10-4 record and a 3.41 ERA, he opted to forgo a $19 million option for 2026 and enter free agency.

While the reasons for his delayed signing remain unclear, speculation suggested that his asking price may have been deemed too high due to his previous elbow issues. Regardless, he was signed at a discount price late in April.

Giolito’s 2025 season featured a fastball averaging 93 mph, which he threw 48% of the time, alongside an 86 mph slider (26%), an 81.7 mph changeup (23%), and a 76.6 mph curveball (3%). However, during his ramp-up in the minors after signing, he pitched 17 innings with a 4.76 ERA, indicating that he was not yet back to form.

Typically, pitchers gradually build up their stamina during Spring Training, but Giolito’s limited preparation time became evident in his first start with the Padres on May 17 against Seattle. His fastball velocity had dropped by 3 mph, mirroring a similar decline in both his slider and changeup. Additionally, he shifted his pitch usage from a fastball-and-slider-heavy mix to a fastball-and-changeup approach, with his curveball remaining a rarely used pitch.

The results have been troubling. Giolito’s walk rate has increased while his strikeout rate has diminished. Opponents are batting .313 against his fastball, with a .555 slugging percentage. His groundball rate has also plummeted to 26.3%, well below his usual 35% threshold.

With only three games under his belt, Giolito has yet to pitch beyond the fifth inning, and his last outing saw him last just 2.2 innings, during which he allowed five hits, four walks, and four runs. Command issues are apparent, as he has issued 11 walks in 12.2 innings pitched while striking out only six batters.

This situation leaves the Padres in a precarious position, as their starting rotation depth is thin. With Giolito and Canning both returning from atypical spring preparations, the team is heavily reliant on King, Vásquez, and Buehler to shoulder the load. This is a considerable ask, given King’s return from a lengthy absence and Buehler’s ongoing reinvention as a starter.

As trade rumors swirl, it seems that while Preller may seek additional bullpen depth, acquiring another starter or two might be a more prudent strategy if the Padres aim to remain competitive in the playoff race. With hopes that Pivetta and Musgrove can return by summer, the current state of the rotation does not inspire confidence in the team’s aspirations for the season.

Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.