Astros May Have Found Their Eighth Inning Solution in AJ Blubaugh

In a season filled with debates about Joe Espada’s managing style, the Houston Astros may have stumbled upon a solution for their eighth-inning woes: AJ Blubaugh. While the Astros have an impressive left-handed bullpen, their right-handed options have been lackluster, especially following Bryan Abreu’s struggles on the mound. Blubaugh’s emergence could provide the punch the team desperately needs.

Officially, Blubaugh has appeared in 32 games, tossing 51.2 innings with a 3.66 ERA. Despite these numbers, many remain hesitant to view him as a reliable option for high-leverage situations. However, a deeper dive into the statistics reveals a compelling narrative. This season, the trend of multi-inning relief outings has surged, reminiscent of the strategies employed in the late 1970s. Out of Blubaugh’s 32 appearances, 20 have featured him returning to the mound for additional innings.

Espada has earned the nickname “Joe ‘One inning too long’ Espada” for his willingness to extend his relievers. With a seven-man bullpen, he has frequently called on pitchers to go beyond one inning, not counting those who finish an inning and continue into the next. This strategy has led to Blubaugh receiving more multi-inning opportunities than any other pitcher on the staff, a testament to Espada’s confidence in him.

Some may argue that Espada’s reliance on multi-inning outings was a necessity earlier in the season due to a struggling starting rotation. While that may have been true in March and April, he continues to employ this strategy into May and June. The effectiveness of this approach has come under scrutiny, especially when examining Blubaugh’s performance.

It’s important to note that Blubaugh’s April outings featured two particularly rough appearances that distort his overall numbers. In one outing, he failed to record an out while yielding five runs, while in another, he allowed four runs across two innings. These performances highlight the unpredictability of relief pitching, where a couple of bad outings can significantly impact a pitcher’s stats.

Yet, when we isolate Blubaugh’s multi-inning performances, his ERA drops to an impressive 2.43, excluding those two disastrous outings. This suggests that he can be effective when given the chance to settle into a rhythm. A key measure of a relief pitcher’s success is their ability to keep opponents from scoring, and Blubaugh’s ability to throw scoreless innings may indicate his potential as a reliable eighth-inning option.

Admittedly, it is more challenging to maintain that success over multiple innings, but the Astros may have found their eighth-inning solution in Blubaugh. While it might be risky to fully entrust him with that role during a pennant race, transitioning him to one-inning outings late in games could be beneficial.

Ultimately, this situation reflects a broader managerial dilemma. Teams often feel compelled to adhere to established strategies, such as asking pitchers to go multiple innings, even when it may not be the most effective approach. By recognizing when to deploy pitchers in situations where they are likely to succeed, a team can enhance its overall performance.

On a positive note, with Josh Hader rejoining the bullpen, the Astros can begin to establish clearer roles for their pitchers. While Bryan Abreu may no longer be a viable option for the eighth inning, Blubaugh could emerge as a strong candidate to partner with Bryan King in a righty-lefty platoon. Given the current state of the bullpen, this is a promising direction for the Astros.

Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.