Age and Analytics: Nolan Arenado and MLB’s Struggles for Older Hitters

Nolan Arenado was enjoying a strong performance in May when he encountered a familiar challenge for athletes transitioning into their mid-to-late 30s: back pain. While the discomfort wasn’t severe enough to sideline him, it served as a reminder of the physical toll that comes with age, especially for an eight-time All-Star who recently turned 35. “There’s more aches and pains,” Arenado remarked, emphasizing the increased gym time required for preparation. “There’s definitely more maintenance.”

Despite this minor setback, Arenado has continued to find success at the plate, boasting a .256 batting average, eight home runs, and 30 RBIs as of Monday. He’s part of a select group of players aged 35 and older who are still making an impact, alongside veterans like Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy from the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston’s Christian Walker. However, this group has dwindled significantly over the past decade.

MLB hitters aged 35 and above have combined for merely 5.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) through the season’s first third, reflecting a concerning trend for older players. In the early 2000s, seasoned stars were commonplace, with 2003 marking a peak of 71.3 WAR from older hitters, including legends like Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas. This decline prompts the question: what has changed?

The shift toward younger players can be traced back to the analytical revolution that began with Bill James in the late 20th century. By the late 2000s, metrics like WAR, wOBA, BABIP, and OPS+ became critical in evaluating player performance, rendering the traditional eye test insufficient. These statistics overwhelmingly indicate that peak performance for hitters typically occurs in their mid-20s to early 30s.

Consequently, MLB teams have increasingly focused on locking up young talent with long-term contracts. Players like Arizona’s Corbin Carroll and Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez have secured lucrative deals well before reaching free agency, making veteran signings less appealing. Walker, a three-time Gold Glove first baseman, signed a relatively modest three-year, $60 million contract with the Astros after the 2024 season at age 33, highlighting this trend.

“I think it has a lot to do with the ability to measure guys’ value on the field,” Walker explained. The evolution of analytics has shifted the focus from subjective assessments to quantifiable data, altering how players are evaluated and compensated.

Today’s hitters face an increasingly challenging environment where velocity reigns supreme. The average MLB fastball has surged above 94 mph, with a growing number of pitchers exceeding 96 mph. This marks a stark contrast to when Freeman entered the league, where the average fastball was below 92 mph.

Arenado noted that one of the biggest challenges for aging MLB veterans is adapting to the velocity of modern pitchers, especially those who can consistently hit 100 mph. “I feel like just the general age of the levels and the development is trending younger and younger,” Walker added, pointing to the reality that many players peak at a younger age.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, who played until he was 36, has firsthand experience with the aging process in baseball. He highlighted the difficulty of maintaining previous performance levels without adapting to new circumstances. “The hardest part is to expect and want the same output you’ve always had, but not be willing to change the equation,” he said, emphasizing the need for players to adjust their routines and habits as they age.

Walker, who became a starter at 28, embraces his age and actively monitors his health through blood tests to identify potential deficiencies. “For myself, no real magic recipe, just chalk it up to being a late bloomer,” he shared, acknowledging that while he may be older, his service time doesn’t reflect that of a typical 35-year-old.

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo credited Arenado’s continued success in his 14th season to the guidance of the team’s hitting coaches and Arenado’s willingness to adapt. “There’s an adjustment to work habits and mindset once you get to that level where things aren’t as easy as they used to be,” Lovullo noted, underscoring the importance of embracing change to thrive in the league.

“It’s fun to watch Nolan Arenado have all this success, but he’s worked his butt off,” Lovullo said. “He’s working as hard as any 22 or 23-year-old we have on this team.”

Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.