Hockey

Maple Leafs Face Tough Draft Lottery Odds After Avalanche Victory

by
William Caldwell
April 15, 2026

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ hopes of bolstering their roster at the 2026 NHL Draft took a hit on Tuesday night when the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Calgary Flames 3-1. This outcome eliminated any possibility for the Maple Leafs to finish with fewer points than the Flames in the overall NHL standings, thereby sealing their fate as they prepare for the upcoming draft lottery.

With this loss, Toronto will conclude the season with either the fifth or sixth worst record, a positioning that could significantly impact their prospects in the NHL Draft lottery scheduled for May 5. The stakes are high, as the lottery will not only dictate the Leafs’ draft pick but could also determine whether they have a selection at all.

Earlier this season, the Maple Leafs traded their first-round pick to the Boston Bruins alongside forward prospect Fraser Minten in exchange for veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo. Fortunately for Toronto, the pick is top-5 protected, which means they will retain it if it falls within that range after the lottery.

As the Leafs gear up for their final game of the season against the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday, they hold a record of 32-35-14 with 78 points. The Seattle Kraken, who are currently one point ahead with 79 points and two games remaining, have the first tiebreaker advantage over Toronto. This places the Leafs in a precarious position; they will need to avoid a win in Ottawa to likely secure the No. 5 spot heading into the lottery. A victory, however, would necessitate that Seattle earns at least one point in their remaining games to keep Toronto in that favorable position.

Under the current lottery format, entering with the No. 5 chances grants a team a 41.9 percent likelihood of landing a top-5 pick. Conversely, that probability drops to 15.4 percent if the Leafs find themselves in the No. 6 spot. As the draft approaches, all eyes will be on Toronto’s performance against Ottawa and the unfolding scenarios that could affect their draft fortunes.

Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.

William Caldwell

William Caldwell is a veteran journalist whose career has spanned the highs and lows of the sports world. With a focus on baseball and hockey, William’s articles are known for their depth and historical perspective, making him a favorite among fans who appreciate the rich traditions of sports. Outside the press box, William is an amateur historian with a particular interest in sports memorabilia.