Padres Must Exercise Caution with Joe Musgrove’s Return

The San Diego Padres are treading carefully with starter Joe Musgrove as the 2026 season approaches. Just 18 months post-Tommy John surgery, Musgrove’s recovery process is crucial, and the team recognizes the importance of a measured approach. While the standard recovery timeline for Tommy John surgery ranges from 12 to 18 months, Musgrove has learned from fellow pitchers that feeling completely normal can take up to two years.

In a recent episode of the Friar Territory podcast, Musgrove expressed his commitment to being ready for the end of the season, emphasizing that starting the year in the rotation is not a necessity. He mentioned that strategies such as pushing back his starts and limiting his innings or pitches are all on the table as he navigates his recovery.

Following his first spring training start on March 4 against the Great Britain WBC team, Musgrove reported no physical issues after throwing 60 pitches over three innings. He acknowledged the challenge of adapting to the pitch clock and the competitive environment, contrasting it with the more controlled settings of the Peoria Sports Complex.

The real test for Musgrove will be how he feels in the days following his outings. Manager Craig Stammen indicated that Musgrove threw a bullpen session after his start; however, it was announced that he has no scheduled next start, and his status will be evaluated daily based on how his arm feels. When asked about his arm, Musgrove candidly admitted, “It feels like I had surgery.”

Reflecting on last season, Musgrove managed a commendable 3.88 ERA despite pitching through injuries. His Baseball Savant page indicated that he was not performing at an elite level, yet he still managed to log nearly 100 innings with a winning record. Notably, he had removed his slider from his arsenal, opting instead for a sweeper.

In his recent outing, Musgrove showcased a diverse seven-pitch mix, reintroducing the slider and maintaining the sweeper. His fastball velocity averaged 94.1 mph, a slight increase from his performance in 2023.

The Padres are likely to delay Musgrove’s start to ensure his arm fully recovers, meaning he might not be ready for Opening Day. This isn’t a major concern as he was not slated to be the starter on March 26; at best, he would be third in line for the Padres. It’s possible he could begin the season on the injured list, but the team has several options to stay competitive until he is ready.

With two off days in the first eight days of the season, the Padres can utilize a fill-in starter or allow their rotation to rest on a normal four days’ rest. The organization is currently assessing three pitchers—Ron Marinaccio, Kyle Hart, and Logan Gillaspie—to serve as “bridge” pitchers, a term Stammen prefers over “long-man.” Marinaccio and Gillaspie face waiver considerations if they don’t make the roster.

Without Musgrove at the start of the season, both German Marquez and Walker Buehler have the opportunity to secure roster spots in spring training. Randy Vasquez appears to have solidified his position with strong performances, but the final roster decisions must be made by March 21, coinciding with Buehler’s opt-out date.

Although none of the pitchers competing for rotation spots have posted an ERA below 5.40, spring stats can be misleading. Underlying metrics suggest that Marquez and Buehler possess superior stuff and velocity compared to Marco Gonzales, while Tristan McKenzie is still developing.

When Musgrove is ready to return, it’s likely he will face some limitations, whether through an innings cap or extended recovery time between starts. The bullpen is well-equipped to support this strategy, with bridge pitchers available to step in as needed.

Musgrove has consistently stated that starting the season as a pitcher is less important than finishing strong. His ultimate goal is to play in October and contribute in playoff games. For the Padres to reach that milestone, they need a healthy and effective Joe Musgrove. The Friar Faithful should remain patient as the team works to bring back the best version of Musgrove.

Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.