Cracking the Code to Next Big NHL Stars

Taking a deep dive into the world of fantasy hockey, let’s turn the spotlight on forwards that could potentially emerge as breakout stars. Our focus? A 22 years and 331 days old forward, who has played 140 matches in the NHL. Sounds like a shot in the dark, right? Bear with us, as this article is all about finding the hidden gems in your fantasy draft, players who might just dazzle the arena with their breakthrough performances.

The Art and Science of Predicting Breakouts

Historically, I’ve been an advocate for using age-curve breakthrough analysis. But in this digital age, we have access to an abundance of data, so why restrict ourselves to just one variable when forecasting the future NHL stars? Let’s add NHL experience into the equation, making our fantasy draft strategy more comprehensive.

Factoring in Age and NHL Experience

When it comes to age, the golden years for NHL fantasy production among forwards range from 25 to 30. Analyzing the top 100 NHL forwards over the last 15 seasons, we find that the peak age for fantasy points is around 27, with the average age being 27 years and 331 days. This age range has consistently been a reliable indicator of past breakout seasons, particularly when focusing on the age bracket of 21 to 24 among forwards. But, we can delve much deeper.

How to Spot Potential Breakout Stars

The methodology is simple. We start by reviewing the game records for the past 15 seasons (starting from the 2009-10 season), identifying all players who made their debut from 2009-10 onwards. We then narrow down our list to players who are currently older than 24.7 years, with at least 100 NHL games under their belts. The next step is to search the records for players achieving an average of at least 1.7 fantasy points over a span of 30 games. This list helps us calculate the average age and NHL experience at which players typically “break out” and become relevant in the fantasy world.

Identifying the Top Prospects

Now, armed with our new insights, let’s dig into the list of potential breakout stars. Let’s widen our age range to 23 years and 331 days, taking into account individual variations. We now have a pool of 133 players to consider for a breakout. However, we’ll exclude those who have already established themselves as fantasy superstars, with at least 50 games played and a fantasy points per game (FPPG) rate of over 1.7. This leads us to remove players like Jack Hughes, Tim Stutzle, Cole Caufield, Matt Boldy and Connor Bedard.

Next, we use NHL experience as our secondary filter. Our target is players with between 100 and 180 games under their belt. This criteria doesn’t mean players outside of this range won’t have a stellar season, but we’re using recent history as our guide to make educated guesses.

Finalizing the List of Potential Breakout Stars

After applying our filters, we’re left with 20 forwards under our age cutoff, with the right amount of experience, and who aren’t already established stars. However, we fantasy players are more discerning than your average NHL fan. If a player has been on the radar before, they’re not really due for a traditional breakout.

Let’s use our 30-game average test one last time to eliminate any players who have already achieved this level of success, even if just temporarily. After this final filter, we’re left with 14 potential breakout stars.

The Final List: Potential Breakout Stars

Without further ado, let’s delve into these final players, listed in order of their FPPG from last season, with their age as of Sept. 1, 2024, and their NHL experience.

Some Notable Names on the List

Here are a few players that stand out from the final list:

Jack Quinn, F, Buffalo Sabres
Quinton Byfield, F, Los Angeles Kings
JJ Peterka, F, Buffalo Sabres
Matias Maccelli, F, Utah Hockey Club
Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets
Marco Rossi, F, Minnesota Wild
Connor McMichael, F, Washington Capitals
Luke Evangelista, F, Nashville Predators
Kent Johnson, F, Columbus Blue Jackets
Alexander Holtz, F, Vegas Golden Knights

Wildcard Picks

In addition to the players who met our criteria, here are a couple of potential breakout stars who didn’t meet the experience thresholds but are worth keeping an eye on:

Shane Wright, F, Seattle Kraken
Logan Stankoven, F, Dallas Stars

Other Potential Breakout Stars

Here are a few other players that made the final list, but might not have a clear path to top-six minutes this season:

Philip Tomasino, F, Nashville Predators
Simon Holmstrom, F, New York Islanders
Aliaksei Protas, F, Washington Capitals
Vasily Podkolzin, F, Edmonton Oilers

Now that you have this valuable insight, take the next step and use this knowledge to dominate your fantasy hockey draft. Happy drafting!