Probing the 2024 NFL Season: An Early Insight into the Playoff Picture

As we conclude the 3rd week and embark on the 4th week of the 2024 NFL regular season, it’s time to take a preliminary glance at the current playoff scenario and the journey to Super Bowl LIX. Months lie between now and the postseason, and yet, some teams are already showing promising signs, while others have a mountain to climb to secure a spot in the 14-team field.

Using our research, we’ve projected the course of the remaining season, providing a comprehensive overview of the playoff prospects for both conferences. We have also updated the odds for each team’s chances of reaching the postseason, clinching their division, and even making it to the Super Bowl. Here’s the information you require as of September 27, 7 p.m. ET.

An Examination of the AFC Playoff Landscape

In the NFL, two teams have a 95% or better probability of making the playoffs, both hailing from the AFC. The Bills, following a resounding victory over the Jaguars, lead with a 97% chance, while the Chiefs closely trail at 96%. The Jets (81%) and Steelers (79%) are the next contenders, with our Football Power Index giving Pittsburgh a 52% chance to win the challenging AFC North.

The Bengals, despite a disappointing 0-3 start, still hold a 36% chance of making the playoffs, a significant drop from their initial odds of 66% at the season’s commencement. The Patriots, at a lowly 9%, sit at the base of the conference in terms of playoff chances. Three AFC teams, once considered serious contenders, now languish below 20%: the Dolphins (10%), the Jaguars (13%), and the Browns (18%).

Forecasting the NFC Playoff Field

The Eagles, after their triumphant victory over the Saints, hold an impressive 82% playoff probability. They are closely followed by two unexpected breakout teams of the season: The Vikings (76%) and the Saints (69%), despite their recent loss. The 49ers’ Week 3 defeat to the Rams saw them slip to 62% – the 11th-best odds in the NFL.

Remarkably, the Seahawks, the only 3-0 team below 75%, sit far down at a 50% chance. The Commanders managed to boost their chances to 35%, following their Monday night victory over the Bengals. This is the same percentage as the Cowboys, who narrowly defeated the Giants. The Panthers and Giants find themselves at the NFL’s lower end, with playoff chances of 6% and 4%, respectively.

NFL Playoff Schedule

Jan. 11-13: Wild-card round

Jan. 18-19: Divisional round

Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games

Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)