Unveiling the Next Big Stars: Deciphering NHL’s Breakout Defenders

Deciphering a Breakout Candidate

The trajectory to prime fantasy production among defenders is smoother compared to forwards. Defenders usually take a tad longer to hit their prime and enjoy an extended duration at their peak. Comparing the top 60 defenders based on fantasy points over the last 15 NHL seasons, the average age is 28 years and 122 days, slightly older than their forward counterparts.

Our methodology involves analyzing defensemen who started their NHL journey in or after the 2009-10 season, aged at least 25.7 years, and have clocked in a minimum of 100 NHL games. We use a 30-game rolling average of a minimum of 1.7 fantasy points per game to identify when a “breakout” occurred.

On the Spectrum of Breakout Performances

Players like Charlie McAvoy, Cale Makar, and Zach Werenski have displayed instant breakout performances. However, Erik Gudbranson represents the other extreme end, having played 726 NHL games before achieving a 30-game rolling average of 1.7 fantasy points per game at nearly 32 years of age.

After analyzing 83 defenders, we have set an age range of 24 to 25 years and 105 days, with an experience range of 92 to 172 games. From the resulting 104 defensemen, we’ve excluded established fantasy assets like Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard, Moritz Seider, Jake Sanderson, Kaiden Guhle, and Brock Faber.

Narrowing Down Breakout Contenders

After applying the games-played filter, we’re left with 20 defenders. However, to define potential breakout candidates, we used our 30-game rolling average. This resulted in seven players who’ve already surpassed a 30-game run of 1.7 fantasy points per game.

Unveiling Potential Breakout Defenders

This leaves us with 13 defensemen showcasing promising breakout potential. They are all under 25 years and 105 days old, with less than 1.7 fantasy points per game to their credit so far. They have played at least 92 NHL games but no more than 172. They have not had a consistent 30-game run where they’ve averaged 1.7 fantasy points per game or better.

Players to Watch

These players include key prospects like Alex Vlasic from Chicago Blackhawks, Jamie Drysdale from Philadelphia Flyers, Kevin Bahl from Calgary Flames, and Philip Broberg from St. Louis Blues. These defenders are showing promising signs and are worth keeping an eye on for the upcoming season.

Going Beyond the Numbers

While the above analysis has been strictly based on statistical criteria, we have identified a couple of defenders who, despite not meeting the games-played threshold, have strong breakout potential. They are Olen Zellweger from Anaheim Ducks and Simon Edvinsson from Detroit Red Wings.

The Long Shots

Lastly, we have nine defenders who meet the statistical criteria but are unlikely to break out due to various factors, primarily related to their position on the depth chart. These include players like Arber Xhekaj from Montreal Canadiens, Egor Zamula from Philadelphia Flyers, Jordan Harris from Columbus Blue Jackets, and many more.