Examining the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery Odds: Who’s in the Running for No. 1?

The anticipation for the 2026 Stanley Cup begins on Saturday, August 18, as 16 teams engage in eight first-round playoff series. However, the other half of the NHL is already casting an eye toward the future, particularly the upcoming draft in June. For non-playoff teams, the annual draft lottery looms large, set to determine their order in the first round.

The Vancouver Canucks, who finished at the bottom of the standings, find themselves in a prime position with an 18.5% chance to secure the top pick outright. Their odds improve to 25.5% if a team finishing between 12th and 16th overall wins and ascends the draft board by the maximum of 10 spots.

Last year, the New York Islanders defied expectations by winning the lottery with a mere 3.5% chance, ultimately selecting Matthew Schaefer with the first overall pick. Similarly, the Utah Mammoth benefited from the lottery, moving up to claim the fourth overall selection.

This year’s draft class is rich, featuring standout prospects like Penn State’s Gavin McKenna and Sweden’s Ivan Stenberg, who are expected to be top picks.

According to Tankathon, the draft lottery odds are based on the teams’ final standings for the 2025-26 season. Teams finishing in the 12 to 16 range are ineligible for the No. 1 pick but can still move up 10 spots.

The lottery consists of two drawings: the first determines the top pick, while the second allocates the second overall selection. Notably, winning teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots. The last-place team is guaranteed to draft no lower than third overall. Since the 2022 lottery, a team is restricted to winning the lottery no more than twice within a five-year span. The system involves 14 ping-pong balls, with each team assigned a series of four numbers—lower-ranked teams receive more number combinations, enhancing their chances.

Note: This recap is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting.