Decoding Your Fantasy Basketball Draft: A Comprehensive Strategy Guide

The distribution of talent in fantasy basketball drafts is seldom uniform across different positions. This year is not an exception, with point guards and big men dominating the top picks. Apart from a select few top-tier swingmen, most of the wing talent is up for grabs in the later stages of the draft. This intel is crucial as it aids managers in crafting their teams. This is where our tier-based strategy, covered in this article, comes in handy.

One strategy could be to prioritize small forwards in the initial rounds, given their scarcity. In the first fantasy basketball mock draft of this season, only five players eligible as small forwards made it to the top three rounds. This is in stark contrast to the 16 point guard-eligible players picked in the same round, making it evident that securing an elite point guard is easier than nabbing a top-tier small forward.

Unveiling Hidden Value

Another tactic could involve scrutinizing the worth of players available in the latter half of the draft. For instance, the small forward position boasts a dozen players with potential in Tiers 5 and 6, who are almost all regular starters for their respective teams. Comparatively, point guards in these tiers are decent, but many are either reserves or need to find their place in loaded rosters.

Creating the Right Mix

The best approach might involve mixing and matching players from different tiers based on your preference. Would a team with Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Davis, and Jimmy Butler suit your style, or one with Jayson Tatum, Trae Young, and Jarrett Allen? Or perhaps Joel Embiid, LeBron James, and D’Angelo Russell? There is no end to the combinations you can create for a winning team, but it requires identifying strong contributors from top to bottom.

This article provides my breakdown of players into tiers, by position, based on my preseason predictions. While my insights can be valuable, the real benefit comes from investing time to categorize the players into your tiers. This 20-minute exercise can give you a significant edge over other managers in your draft.

Position Breakdown

Point Guard

The top tiers of point guards are three layers deep. Two of them, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, were among the top three fantasy producers last season, being the only non-center-eligible players to score more than 4,000 fantasy points. The subsequent two tiers have more point guard-eligible players (13 in total) than any other position, full of players who can provide first-round production in healthy seasons.

Shooting Guard

In Tier 1, we have only one shooting guard, 23-year-old Anthony Edwards, who could ascend to the top tier this season if he can reproduce his performances from his last two playoffs.

Small Forward

In Tier 1, there’s only one name, Jayson Tatum, although Anthony Edwards is dual-eligible. Tier 2 hosts the oldest player in the league, LeBron James, and one of the youngest All-Stars, Scottie Barnes.

Power Forward

In Tier 1, Giannis Antetokounmpo stands alone, although he and Domantas Sabonis are both eligible as power forwards and centers.

Center

The center position dominates Tier 1, with five center-eligible players, including the past six consecutive NBA MVP winners and one player with limitless potential, Victor Wembanyama.